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Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts
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Scopus
University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce
Date Issued
2012
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University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Research Support Office
Abstract
We find evidence of heterogeneity and irrationality among professional forecasts for threemonth interbank rates and tenyear gilt yields at both short and long forecast horizons over the period 19892006. The majority of biased forecasts overestimate the future spot rate, consistent with slow adjustment to the declining trend in inflation and interest rates. Furthermore, we produce evidence indicating that both monetary policy actions and elements of communication policy have information content regarding the rationality of forecasts. Changes in official bank rates and disagreement among the Monetary Policy Committee influence the rationality of forecasts. The publication of inflation reports has no effect.
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University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce
Bibliographic Citation
G. Chortareas, B. Jitmaneeroj, A. Wood (2012) Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money Vol.22 No.1.
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