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Title: LCIB: Assessing the Impact of Energy Crop on Biodiversity Using Systems Dynamic Modelling
Authors: Adsavakulchai, S. 
Li, L. 
Chan, A. 
Issue Date: 2007
Publisher: University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce
University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce
Source: S. Adsavakulchai, L. Li, A. Chan (2007) LCIB: Assessing the Impact of Energy Crop on Biodiversity Using Systems Dynamic Modelling. UTCC Engineering Research Papers.
Journal: UTCC Engineering Research Papers
Abstract: This study uses a system dynamics approach todevelop a model for assessing the impact on biodiversity ofagricultural land use change driven by bioethanol industry at aregional scale. The Land use Change Impact on Biodiversitymodel (LCIB) is implemented in the STELLA. The model, linkingthe bioethanol requirement, land use change and ecosystemfunctioning to biodiversity, can serve as an experimental platformfor future policy analysis. The model was validated structurallyand behaviorally using the tests suggested by the literature, andthen calibrated using last 10 years period Canadian agriculturalland use and crop production data. It is to compare timedependentecological responses of land use dynamics and speciesdiversity modeled to historical and projected transient forcingacross Canada. The results show that land used for energy cropproduction increased of 27% in last decade, while summerfallowland declined to a low level. As a result, species diversity declined.Validation and calibration show that the model is capable ofcapturing essential dynamics of land use change and ecosystemfunctioning. Simulation results indicate that land for energy cropproduction will further increase in next decade in order to meetthe requirement from bioethanol industry. Species diversity willdecline as agricultural land use change. The impact of agriculturalland use change on regional biodiversity is limited in a short term,but it will be strengthen in a long term.
ISSN: 1906-1625
Rights: This work is protected by copyright. Reproduction or distribution of the work in any format is prohibited without written permission of the copyright owner.
Appears in Collections:EN: Journal Articles

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